Volatility (σ)

Volatility σ measures how strongly the annual return of your portfolio fluctuates around its average. It determines the width of the Monte Carlo corridor and the probability of success.

FireLotse calculates σ from your actual allocation: each asset category has a typical σ planning value (instant-access savings 1% · bonds 5% · real assets 8% · growth 16% · speculation 30% …), which is weighted by the euro amount of your position. Custom categories and portfolio imports use the heuristic σ ≈ return × 1.8.